In an increasingly complex world, the less often organizations have to confront sudden and unexpected changes, the better off they are. However, as one of life’s great truths, change will happen; therefore, organizations that invest in the development and integration of foresight as a means to competently adapt and respond to environmental uncertainty, the less they will fear the complex world and the more they will thrive in it. When considering the pace and reliance on modern advancements in communication and transactional business processes, retail powerhouses like Wal-Mart, Home Depot and Ikea are not so different from service-based firms such as postal agencies and financial/accounting firms like IBM or Accenture when confronting rapid change and its subsequent consequences. Like anything in nature, patterns avail themselves to those that are looking the hardest to find them; therefore, as part of a healthy strategy for long term planning, organizations need individuals that “understand the intricate relationship among environmental context, current realities and future possibilities” (Malgeri, 2010, p. 40).
Depending on the perspective, fortunately or unfortunately, our complex world continues to develop some very savvy technological advancements that are empowering the consumer, end-user, small businesses and their decision-making prowess to degrees of influence not seen before. Unless organizational leaders develop competencies to anticipate the future via experience of the past, global retailers such as Wal-Mart will continue to be caught flat-footed against the growth surge in online retailing, which consequently, provides a growing number of competing small businesses with an equal stake in the choice’s individuals make. To its credit, Wal-Mart was one of the early pioneers in virtual supply chain management, allowing their vendor-partners access to its inventory levels at retail stores in order to streamline production and procurement. Although these internal efficiencies led to lower prices on toothpaste, the consumer still had to get dressed, leave the house, get in the car, drive to Wal-Mart, find the toothpaste aisle, rinse and repeat. The seamless online buying experience Jeff Bezos of Amazon was dreaming of in his garage was far off Wal-Mart’s radar, at least for the time being. Today, through greater investment within “foresight management”, Wal-Mart has developed a robust e-commerce presence connecting itself more closely to their customers and anticipated needs via buying portals, direct loyalty award accounts and IT phone applications (Smart, 2015). As a more visible consequence of this investment, renovations to existing Wal-Mart brick and mortar stores are outpacing new building development; therefore, it is more obvious now, that the retail buying environment is most certainly trending towards adopting e-commerce as the dominant transactional paradigm (Thomas, 2018).
In his book titled Leadership, Peter G Northouse (2016) looks beyond the pragmatic nuances when contextualizing the past and present as a means to envision the future when he states that “foresight has an ethical dimension” (p. 228). Depending upon your perspective, the consequences when reacting to environmental changes, especially at the whim of technological advancements, can be either positive or negative. As a result of e-commerce expansion, the retail environment is experiencing less waste, faster and more reliable service and lower prices; however, those small businesses competing in this same electronic space have broadened their market share providing an opportunity to have their product delivered to the same door at the same time as the product from big retail. Nevertheless, all businesses that care about long-term sustainability and growth need their leaders to communicate the importance of “viewing each part as a learning organization” (Malgeri, 2010, p. 41). Leaders with the experience to “enable good foresight”, need to address this value as part of their servant leadership skill set, not only as a matter of theoretical instruction to others, but one in which the leader is obligated to act out in practical ways on an ongoing basis (Smart, 2015). When considering Wal-Mart’s delay through the e-commerce development malaise, my only suggestion would have been that executive leaders not only share their own wisdom and foresight, but allow it to be challenged by other hierarchal positions in order to drive innovative thinking, however maniacal it may be, when concerning future planning for the organization.
Matt
Malgeri, J. (2010, Winter). Organizational foresight and stewardship. The Public Manager, 39(4), 39-42.
Northouse, P. G. (2016). Leadership: theory and practice (Seventh ed.). Los Angeles: Sage Publications.
Smart, J. M. (2015, April 8). John Smart – Leadership of Tech Change – WFS2013. Retrieved November 2018, from You Tube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhdWqLNUJns
Thomas, L. (2018, February 20). Walmart has big yer of e-commerce investments planned to bring growth back to 40 percent. Retrieved November 2018, from CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/20/walmart-has-big-year-of-e-commerce-investments-planned.html