According to Malgeri (2010), “Foresight is defined as the ability to develop and maintain a forward-looking perspective and to anticipate emerging opportunities and problems by continually scanning the environment for trends and new developments” (p. 39).
I would like to briefly analyze how Canada Post has used foresight based on a discussion paper posted on the Government of Canada’s website and answer the questions from Activity 2:
How has Canada Post responded to technological changes?
I think given the rapid changes they have undergone, due to technological advancement speeds, that Canada Post has responded well to some degree. They have thoroughly analyzed where and how they can cut costs. Some of those ways they planned to take action in 2013, was through their “Five-point Action Plan”, which I summarized below:
- Converting to community mailboxes- to make door-to-door mail delivery cheaper. So far, 830 000 addresses have been converted to community mailboxes.
- Tiered pricing that raised the cost of a single stamp or was cheaper if purchased in volume.
- Opening more franchise postal services, which cost less than corporate post offices. Opened 73 new postal outlets across the country, in convenient locations and offering extended hours.
- Streamlining operations: more efficient mail and parcels flow to customers.
- Addressing cost of labour through attrition and collective bargaining. (Bertrand et al., 2016, p. 14).
What are some positive and negative consequences of these changes?
Positive consequences of the rapid digital changes in the 21st century are that people can communicate more easily now through their smart phones, email, social media, messaging apps, etc (Bertrand et al., 2016, p. 1). Bertrand et al. (2016) indicated, “Public opinion research focus groups indicate that even though Canadians recognize the ongoing shift to digital communications, they are emotionally attached to mail: personal letters, parcels from loved ones, greeting and holiday related cards are viewed with much affection, even nostalgia” (p. 2). Though Canadians still hold sentimental value to getting mail/parcels and to Canada Post as a service, the negative consequences of digital changes and increased communication are undeniable. Canada Post’s revenue is suffering due to consistent decline in the use of mail.
Canada Post, in seeing their decline in revenues on mail took to making parcels a strategic focus, since the online shopping world was growing, however in this 2016 report Bertrand et al. (2016) stated, “Unfortunately, despite an almost 10 per cent growth in parcel volumes at Canada Post in 2015 over the previous year, the longer term revenue growth in parcels may not be sustainable or enough to offset future declines in letter revenues” (p. 3).
Would you have done anything differently?
I admire Canada post for their active and action-orientated response to saving money and cutting cost, due to the present realities they were facing. However, one thing I observe is that in their first attempt in 2013, with the “Five-point Action Plan”, they were only applying “technical changes”, in order to “keep their head above water” for a short time. However, what Canada Post really needs is to recognize they are in a time where they need to face and tackle “adaptive challenges” (Northouse, 2016, p. 262 & Bertrand et al., 2016, p. 14). Northouse (2016) states,
Adaptive challenges are problems that are not clear-cut or easy to identify. They cannot be solved by the leader’s authority or expertise, or through the normal ways of doing things in the organization. Adaptive challenges require that leaders encourage others to define challenging situations and implement solutions…adaptive challenges are difficult because they usually require changes in people’s priorities, beliefs, roles and values. (p. 262).
The changes they previously applied did not seem to maintain as Malgeri (2010) stated, a “forward-looking perspective” in terms of “anticipating emerging opportunities” (p. 39). They had a forward-looking perspective on the problems, but less of an emphasis on looking for the opportunities (Malgeri, 2010, p. 39).
However, now Canada Post seems to be more forward looking. According to their recent 2016 analysis, they have been looking more at potential opportunities and likely realizing they are encountering “adaptive challenges”, rather than basic cost-cutting, as in their first “5 Point Plan” (Northouse, 2016, pp 261-262 & Bertrand et al., 2016, p. 14). One of those forward looking and opportunistic ideas is interestingly the “Distribution of Marijuana” (Bertrand et al., 2016, pp. 74-75).
Personally, in being “forward thinking”, what I would have done differently was do targeted research on pre-teens and teenagers and their view of Canada Post, mail and parcels. Pre-teens and teenagers have grow up immersed in technology and I think they are less sentimental about mail and parcels. I do not think Canada Post can rely on it’s “sentimentality” to see them through more than 10 more years. Unless they adapt and adapt fast, they will be sadly irrelevant to a generation that I do not think values the use of mail.
There is potential for rapid and drastic adaptation, but in the words of Bertrand et al. (2016):
Canada post is at a crossroads. Canada Post’s costs are growing faster than its revenues. Digitalization is moving its business from letters to parcels…Under the status quo, Canada Post will not be financially self-sustainable going forward. The Corporation’s business model, which reflects the 20th century, needs to be realigned with the rapidly changing technological realities and the changing postal usage of Canadians (p 8).
References
Bertrand, F., Hoeg, K.T., Hopson, J. & Mclaughlin, M, Canada Post in the Digital Age (2016, September). Task Force for the Canada Post Corporation Review. Retrieved from https://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/examendepostescanada-canadapostreview/documents/EPC-CPR_rpt-eng.pdf
Malgeri, J. (2010, Winter). Organizational foresight and stewardship. The Public Manager, 39(4), 39-42.
Northouse, P.G. (2018). Leadership: theory and practice (8th ed.). Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications.
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